Some see lack of heavyweights beyond 'Home Improvement' and 'Seinfeld'; others cite syndication potential of 'Grace,' 'Frasier' and others
The syndiCation marketplace, which sees the debut of Home Improvement and Seinfeld into off-network syndication this fall (see story, page 22), is unlikely to see a repeat performance in the foreseeable future, say some handicappers.
In addition to those two heavyweights, Buena Vista's Dinosaurs and Blossom and Warner Bros.' Step by Step will launch this fall, but the spotlight is squarely focused on Columbia TriStar's Seinfeld and Buena Vista's Home Improvement. The latter has been described as the ultimate off-net sitcom, with its broad demographics and perceived ability to play in a variety of dayparts and markets. To its credit, Seinfeld finished the just-ended network season as the number-one-rated series after several years of dominance by Home Improvement.
This is not to say that there will be any shortage of sitcoms coming to syndication during the next few seasons, but opinions are mixed on whether future projects will approach the hype, license fees and anticipated ratings of this fall's two heavy hitters.
"I'd agree one hundred percent that Home Improvement and Seinfeld represent the last of the blockbuster shows for the foreseeable future," says Dick Kurlander, vice president, director of programing, Petry Television. "There's no scarcity of product out there, but there is a lack of heavyweights in the future. I don't think any of those coming out in the next few years have the potential to measure up to Home Improvement. If you set out to make the perfect sitcom for syndication, it [would be] Home Improvement," he says.
"I wouldn't call any of the future sitcoms heavyweights," says Janeen Bjork, vice president, director of programing, Seltel, looking down the list of future off-net entrants. "I don't mean to discredit them because I think many will do well. But Home Improvement is a phenomenon. You see maybe only a couple in a decade."
Although there is a perceived lack of what's considered blockbuster sitcoms available for fall '96, '97 and possibly '98, station reps and distributors are bullish about the prospects for the sitcom marketplace in years to come. In fact, most distributors don't necessarily buy the notion that after this fall the A-level offerings will be scarce.
"Both Grace Under Fire and Framer are A-level titles," says Mort Marcus, president, Buena Vista Television. "And with five networks there will be more to come. I don't know if Frasier and Grace will pull in the same kind of dollars as Home Improvement and Seinfeld, but they have the kind of ensemble casts and demographics that stations find attractive," he says.
"In the genre of Seinfeld and Home Improvement, I guess there is going to be a scarcity of those types of shows," says Barry Thurston, president, Columbia TriStar Television. "But you'd have to show me what an A-level show is. There are plenty of sitcoms out there, including B titles, that have played well in syndication."
Indeed, a top five household ranking during its network run is no guarantee of off-network success. Conversely, a series that may have had trouble breaking the top 20 might prove to be a sleeper in syndication. "The Simpsons wasn't a top-five show, and it's doing extremely well in syndication, the same with The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air," says Bjork. "On the other hand, Murphy Brown was a number-one show, debuted in syndication at the height of the Dan Quayle controversy and did bupkus in syndication."
Greg Meidel, president, Twentieth Television Distribution, says the two big '95 launches have yet to prove that they can compare with this season's off-net heavyweight [The Simpsons], much less set the standard for the future. "There's no question you've got two sitcoms with marquee value. But they've got to live up to the standards set by The Simpsons. [Down the road] Frasier and Grace Under Fire are two terrific shows, and while it may seem there are slim pickin's out there, these are two that could be big."
The list of sitcoms tentatively set to launch in 1996 includes Warner Bros.' Martin and Hangin' with Mr. Cooper, Columbia TriStar's Mad About You and Hearts Afire and Shukovsky English Productions' Love & War. Possible 1997 launches include Buena Vista's Boy Meets World, Frasier from Paramount. Carsey-Werner's Grace Under Fire. Columbia TriStar's The Nanny and The Larry Sanders Show, Warner Bros.' Living Single and The John Larroquette Show (if it is renewed by NBC) and Dave's World. which is from CBS Productions. Looking down the road to 1998, possible candidates include Ellen from Buena Vista and Friends from Warner Bros.
Kurlander says that at least four of the previously mentioned ' 96 and ' 97 candidates have the potential to perform well in syndication. citing Martin, Frasier, Mad About You and Grace Under Fire. Seltel's Bjork lists the same four series and includes Living Single in the mix.
Distributors for some of the future entrants each say that their projects will perform well and point to ratings strength or demographic appeal.
"Martin is more like Married...With Children and The Simpsons," says Scott Carlin, senior VP, sales, Warner Bros. Domestic Television Distribution, referring to two off-Fox syndication successes. "It has the Fox pedigree and a lot of stations have jumped on it because they recognize the disproportionate value of an off-Fox sitcom." He says that many of the viewers who watch Fox sitcoms are also the same viewers who are watching "independent television at 6-8 p.m. So you don't have to make over your audience."
Columbia TriStar's Thurston says, "We look at Mad About You and see a show that is still growing, especially among adults 25-54. It's an 8 p.m. show, but people look at it like a 9 p.m. [anchor] series. It might not hit Seinfeld status, but who knows?" He says the exact launch date for the series will be determined in large part by the market. "It could go in '96 or '97," he says, adding: "We've already gotten a lot of interest from stations for it as we wind down sales for Seinfeld."
One constant among the future off-net sitcoms in the pipeline is that nearly all are adult-driven series rather than kid- and teen-oriented comedies like Full House and Family Matters. That appears to bode well for the syndication marketplace for a number of reasons, according to distributors.
"Traditionally, the shows that have been adult-driven like M*A*S*H and Cheers have been long-lasting. The others that featured kids tended not to last as long," says Thurston. "I think it's a healthy trend because stations are looking for young adults, as the networks are."
"The impact of this move to adultdriven shows is a couple of years out," says Warner Bros.' Carlin. "Those stations that have built businesses with primarily kid- and teendriven shows like Full House, Family Matters and Fresh Prince won't have those kinds of shows, so we'll be benefiting because of the second and third runs. Otherwise, stations won't be able to get those 5-7 p.m. shows." Additionally, he says, those stations that continue to program the younger-skewing comedies will be counterprograming adult sitcoms.
Of course, the off-net sitcom marketplace equation could be rewritten in the next few years if the prime time access rules are revised or junked. In that event, with an increased number of bidders--especially top-market affiliates--many of the future off-net projects could wind up commanding Seinfeld- or Home Improvement-type coin.
"Eighty percent of the revenue generated for sitcoms comes from the top 50 markets," notes Buena Vista's Marcus. "If PTAR went away and the affiliates in those top markets could buy sitcoms for access, revenue would go up."
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